International Journal of Multi-Disciplinary Research and Developmental Studies
E-ISSN: 2469-7811 • Impact Factor - 9.587

IMPACT OF CHANGING RAINFALL PATTERNS OF AGRICULTURE CROPS YIELDS : A CASE STUDY OF AJMER DISTRICT

Abstract

Changing rainfall patterns in Ajmer district—characterized by an erratic monsoon, sporadic unseasonal rains, and a shrinking number of rainy days—have created high vulnerability and fluctuating yields for both Kharif and Rabi crops. [1, 2, 3, 4] Overview of Rainfall in Ajmer • Average Rainfall: The district receives roughly 410 mm to 525 mm of annual rainfall, about 80% to 90% of which falls during the southwest monsoon between July and September. [1, 2, 3] • Long-Term Trends: Statistical analyses (such as Mann-Kendall tests spanning 1901–2021) show no uniform linear increase or decrease, but highlight extreme year-to-year volatility, higher frequency of dry spells, and a drop in total rainy days (e.g., from 23 days down to 16 days in historical monitoring). [1, 2] • Groundwater Over-Exploitation: All 8 blocks in Ajmer (Arain, Bhinay, Jawaja, Kekri, Masuda, Peesangan, Silora, and Srinagar) are classified as over-exploited (groundwater development exceeding 147%), meaning farmers cannot reliably use tube wells as a buffer during monsoon failures.

Keywords: Ajmer, Rainfall, Agriculture, Crop yields, pattern, impact

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